From 2012 to 2022: Danielle Smith’s early campaigns on her way to the Premier’s office
Navigating rural fissures, getting cozy with farm animals, while failing to put out fires - the soon-to-be renamed Irrational report for October, 2022
As a descendant of Scottish settlers, I am grateful to be producing this newsletter in Moh’kinsstis, and the traditional Treaty 7 territory of the Blackfoot confederacy: Siksika, Kainai, Piikani, as well as the Îyâxe Nakoda and Tsuut’ina nations. I understand that this territory is also home to the Métis Nation of Alberta, Region 3 within the historical Northwest Métis homeland. In the spirit of truth and reconciliation, I recognize that the land I work and live on was stolen from these nations and I have been afforded privileges as a result.
A lot has happened in Alberta politics. Very little of it is good.
At the end of July, I referred to Danielle Smith’s campaign as the “bonkers” campaign and we all know how that turned out. Serves me right for using a term that is not okay as - funny or not - it is another way of saying “crazy,” which is not respectful.
So, although I considered changing the name of this report from the “Irrational Report” to the “Bonkers Report” for the coming days under Premier Danielle Smith, that would be shamefully ableist. I have suffered from depression and anxiety for years (although you wouldn’t know it from my newsletter, haha), and understand the importance of not stigmatizing mental health.
The existing name still seems appropriate enough, although I’m considering modifying it somewhat to the “Extremely Irrational Report,” or the “Colossally Irrational Report” because it does seem fitting. Please tell me in this poll your favourite adverb to reflect the current and anticipated state of Alberta politics under our newly-installed, under-elected premier.
Now that Smith has been appointed, it might be a good time for Alberta’s NDP to reflect on her history of winning and losing in Alberta. There is a tendency to dismiss her due to a number of high profile losses and mistakes, but Smith needs to be taken seriously as an opponent. It would be better to look at not only her mistakes, but what she has done well in the past.
Smith is a politician that I’ve written quite a bit about on my own blog and on other online sites and blogs over the years. There was the birth of the Wildrose Party in my former riding of Highwood where Smith was first elected as an MLA. I wrote about the riding for Dave Cournoyer’s blog in early 2011. At the time, I described it as a “hotbed of disgruntled former PC Party supporters,” not unlike the current situation with the UCP.
This was when Ed Stelmach was still premier and in Okotoks, housing developments were at a “virtual standstill due to water licence shortages and the town running out of options.” Rural conservatives were outraged at the prospects of an open market for water licences.
Even this early in her political career, Smith showed a propensity for altering course if it increased her chances of succeeding electorally.
The Wildrose party and Smith, who claimed to be a libertarian, found themselves in a quandary. Libertarians opposed to the free market solution so many ranchers and farmers were lined up against? Even this early in her political career, Smith showed a propensity for altering course if it increased her chances of succeeding electorally.
Smith even went as far as meeting privately with Liberal leader David Swann at one point to discuss their shared interest in defeating the PC’s. Nothing really came of it, but having been in attendance at the meeting, I will say the two leaders seemed wary of each other, but were solidly united in their dislike of the party that had been in power for 40 years. It was cordial, mostly on Swann’s side, while Smith seemed warm and charming.
Smith went on to defeat the PC candidate in Highwood, John Barlow, who ironically went on to be elected (and remains) the Member of Parliament (MP) for the area since 2015. Once considered a moderate, Barlow has surprisingly become one of the more extreme right wing members of the party. He was on a short list of Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) MP’s who met with the convoy organizers this past summer on Parliament Hill.
Redford teetered on a skateboard, while Smith cuddled lambs
In addition to covering the local debates in Highwood for Cournoyer’s blog, I wrote a post for my own blog that is still my most widely read post ever. In it, I argued that the visual campaign run by PC Leader Allison Redford was failing.
“The photos being posted to Twitter by the PC's were mostly poor quality, out-of-focus and to be blunt--boring. It seems like someone was deliberately trying to portray this exceptionally bright woman, as dour and all-business. There were a couple of attempts, one of her teetering on a skateboard (that was just taking things a bit too far!) but I couldn't find anything on Twitter that made her look natural, friendly and someone you might want to sit down with over a glass of wine.”
“By contrast, we see Smith smiling mostly, wearing bright colours, serving donuts, horsebacking riding, petting lambs, walking her dogs, pouring beer–I could go on and on.”
From a visual perspective, there’s no doubt Smith’s campaign team did a phenomenal job back in 2012. At the time, I created a Pinterest board which I easily populated with endless photos of Smith. But I was hard-pressed to find photos of Redford for the board.
Updated Note (November 30) : I removed my Pinterest board recently and now am regretting it! I may consider starting up a new account with the upcoming election. (New board created and subsequently my account was deactivated by Pinterest. Not sure why!)
Angry faces impair our ability to suppress inappropriate responses
It remains to be seen whether Smith has a similarly talented team in place this time. Initial impressions are not good. Smith has been called “personable,” and seems quite capable and authentic on the campaign trail. She also does well in photo ops, seemingly quite comfortable in front of the camera. But her social media presence has been more combative than comfortable.
Nothing is more emotionally impactful than photos and videos of your candidate. Words don’t activate the amygdala (the part of the brain where you experience emotions) the same way as photos or videos do.
Let’s hope there is some humour still possible despite the dire circumstances
we find ourselves in.
One recent study found that angry facial expressions seem to impair people’s ability to suppress inappropriate responses. I can’t help but speculate that being presented with photos of a candidate’s angry face may interfere with the ability to make a logical voting decision about that person.
Still, Rachel Notley will be a much more effective challenger on this front than Redford was. Notley is in a bit of an uphill battle and will not have any room for mistakes once the campaign begins in earnest. Her team would be well-advised to produce a large amount of high quality images and flood the campaign with them to counter the inevitable unflattering images the UCP and supporters will push out.
Without Brian Mason’s eyebrows, will it even matter?
Whatever happens, I expect a lot of social media shenanigans in the upcoming election. Let’s hope there is some humour still possible despite the dire circumstances we find ourselves in. In 2012, the last time Smith ran to be premier, Brian Mason was running as the NDP leader, and I wrote about the leader’s debate and the role of social media for Troy Media.
“After the audience was served up a meal of jabs, insults and accusations, the online polls fired up and verdicts were rendered as to which party leader won. One tweeter declared, “I think Brian Mason’s eyebrow is a clear runner up!”
Of course, a “plucky” Twitter account for “Brian Mason's Eyebrow” sprang to life soon after that.
Social media was a newly emerging force back in 2012 but there’s no doubt, it nearly derailed Redford several times. Ultimately, Smith may have lost due to the response on social media to her party’s stance on conscience rights, as well as delays in condemning the “Lake of Fire” crowd.
Smith and her team will need to wrestle that social media beast Leela Aheer-style,
or she’ll be left in Notley’s dust.
There were so many blunders by candidates, which were then exploited on social media, that Smith came up with the phrase “bozo eruptions” to characterise the media’s scrutiny of the Wildrose candidate selection process, which was obviously flawed. At the time, social conservatives were largely unprepared to meet the social media challenge.
In a race to find the non-bozos and wrestling social media beast
Ten years later, Smith and the UCP are far behind the NDP in nominating candidates for the upcoming election, which may mean she’ll be scrambling to screen and approve non-bozos. Something tells me this will be a huge vulnerability again in 2023.
She’s even more aligned with social conservatives this time but they will at least have caught up on and used social media much more than they had in 2012.
It remains to be seen though whether the majority of Albertans will react favourably to the type of online messaging we’re seeing out of the anti-2SLGBTQ+, right wing, convoy-supporting, anti-vaccine lobby.
Smith and her team will need to wrestle that social media beast Leela Aheer-style, or she’ll be left in Notley’s dust.